Theme · updated 22 July 2026
Rates & the curve
Yields, the curve, the Fed and the discount rate on everything — the axis every other trade prices off.
The Re-Spike — Oil to $94, Gold to a Record, the War Entrenches
22 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-22 - the diplomatic flicker died and the Iran war entrenched (a 10th night, a widening front to Saudi Arabia, a nuclear-site threat), sending Brent to $94 (Goldman eyes $120) and gold to a record above $4,100; a chip-led equity bounce runs against it
The Week the AI Trade Cracked — And the Oil Shock Came Back
18 July 2026Saturday 2026-07-18 - the week's midweek relief (a benign CPI, a walked-back Hormuz toll) broke Friday on its two ignored risks: a cheap Chinese AI model sent chips into a bear market, and the discounted oil shock returned with Brent at $88
Taco Tuesday — The Toll's Gone, the War Isn't
16 July 2026Thursday 2026-07-16 - Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz toll and, with a benign CPI and upbeat bank earnings, stocks bid and the war premium unwinds - but a fourth night of strikes keeps the Strait shut and oil near $80: the headline tax is gone, the supply shock isn't
The Capped Relief
15 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-15 - a benign June CPI takes a July hike off the table and gives stocks a modest relief bid, but gold refuses to rally and Trump's 20% Hormuz toll keeps oil near $80 - a forward oil shock the print can't see
The Iran conflict re-escalates into a fight for Hormuz control
13 July 2026Monday 2026-07-13 - the Iran conflict re-escalates into a fight for Hormuz control; oil spikes and futures slip into the CPI-and-earnings verdict week
A week of narrative whiplash ended at S&P highs — but read what the index hides
11 July 2026Saturday 2026-07-11 - the week's wrap: whiplash ends at S&P highs on fading breadth and rising yields; next week is CPI + earnings
The oil shock is round-tripping
10 July 2026Friday 2026-07-10 - the oil premium drains on de-escalation and the relief rally broadens into small-caps, but a split Fed keeps the anchor
Yesterday's shock is now a trend
9 July 2026Thursday 2026-07-09 - the oil shock hardens into a trend, hawkish Fed minutes pin the ceiling, and the tech trade unwinds
The ceasefire ends, oil spikes
8 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-08 - the ceasefire ends, oil spikes, and an oil-led risk-off slams the rate ceiling back through 5%
A soft US jobs report last week dialed back Fed rate-HIKE bets — and the tone tilted dovish…
7 July 2026Tuesday 2026-07-07 - a soft jobs print eases the rate ceiling; watch the undercurrent beneath an AI-led tape
Monday's reopen answered the weekend — and it wasn't holiday liquidity: the hard-asset bid HELD
6 July 2026Monday 2026-07-06 - the reopen after the July 4th weekend
Markets as of the 2 July session
2 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-02 - markets as of the 2 July session
Markets as of the 1 July session
1 July 2026Wednesday 2026-07-01 - markets as of the 1 July session
The disinflation trade arrived — oil -4.5%, gold -3%, the two-year -8bps as the front end…
25 June 2026Thursday 2026-06-25 - markets as of the 24 June session; PCE due today
Week ahead
22 June 2026Monday 2026-06-22 - week ahead; markets as of the 18 June session
Markets as of the 18 June session
21 June 2026Sunday 2026-06-21 — markets as of the 18 June session
MSCI EM +3.3% while STOXX 600 -1.1% — the widest single-session DM/EM divergence in months
20 June 2026Emerging markets outperform sharply as US short rates rise and European equities retreat.
Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain…
18 June 2026Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf.
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