Rates & the curve

A four-year high in wholesale inflation met falling yields, a weaker dollar and a crash in Korea's chip stocks. The bond market is hedging AI, not inflation.

A hot inflation report hit silver, crypto, small caps and AI hardware, not long Treasuries. Our call that the long end would sell off failed on the day.

Results day reversed our bank ranking for a session, and deposits are why. The bondholder read holds, driven by a refinancing market that has stalled.

The big US banks report into a correction, and the order of their falls points at the bond market, not at borrowers. Interest income will not settle it; the paper losses might.

Brazil's shares, currency and rates all priced a Bolsonaro win on Monday — three weeks before the runoff. Our call that the real would hold back was wrong on day one.

A weak jobs report lowered yields for an hour and then the bond market took it back. Shareholders kept the relief; borrowers, whose mortgage rate follows the ten-year, did not.

Crude jumped and Europe paid in its currency and its banks, not its bond yields. The market is treating imported inflation as a tax on the region and discounting the central bank's warnings.

A milder US inflation number failed to lower long-term borrowing costs, and September's losses in company debt lined up by maturity rather than quality. The market is charging for time, not yet for failure.

Beijing cut rates the day Australia hiked and the US long bond hit another 24-year high — because the war's fuel shock has reached China's factories but not its shoppers.

Gold had its worst day since June on a day the war got worse, the long bond reached a 24-year high, and the only safe place was the Treasury bill.

The private-credit managers fell hard while their loans barely moved, the analysts changed nothing, and a long bond near 5.5% is doing its work outside the bond market.

Crude dropped on Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz, the front end rallied, and the thirty-year still made a new high — while credit, not stocks, began to feel it.

Thirty-year yields hit their highest since 2004 as the curve steepened from the far end — and the diesel test we set two days ago fired.

Treasury yields hit two-decade highs on the day diesel fell hardest — and the government's own auctions had been pricing more hikes for a fortnight.

A quarter-point went in and the ten-year came out at exactly five per cent — the long end is clearing without the buyer that used to set it

With the ten-year at five per cent, the market paid the companies selling AI capacity and charged those that must finance it — and the analysts have not noticed

Two sessions after the Fed's first hike since 2023, conditions are easier than before it — on an oil relief the vessel count has not confirmed

The long bond credited the Fed's first hike since 2023 — so the dollar carried the tightening to Europe and Asia

The ten-year touched five per cent, but the curve says the pressure is policy, not borrowing — and the assets paying for it are the ones that need growth

The August price report landed on forecast, household expectations did not — and Wednesday's rate rise will meet a consumer the analysts have not yet revised

Oil above a hundred, a Fed hike four sessions away, and gold, silver and copper all lower on the week — the market is not doubting the answer, it is pricing it

Oil above a hundred, the havens sold, and the five-year leading the curve — the market priced the answer, not the shock

Brent +5.83% with gold +1.04% and the euro +0.43% into the first European hike of the cycle — the decision is priced, its cost is not

Brent +5.01% in five sessions with the VIX -3.79% and gold +0.09% — the market is pricing the barrel as a tax, not as a war

The dollar lost 1.48% to the yen on a US holiday while the dollar index finished +0.01% — the marginal rate decision has left Washington

A week of prices classified the oil shock as a Fed story. After the close, the US struck three Iranian tankers.

A 162,000 payroll print reversed the policy debate and produced the quietest of the last five payroll sessions

Hiring has stopped and firing has not started — which makes today's payrolls print far less decisive than Thursday's session assumed

Crude ran +8.95%, gold fell 5.35%, and equity volatility closed in its 13th percentile — 2026-09-02 settled close

Two names carried the index, 8 of 21 in the complex fell, and the rating layer recorded nothing — 2026-08-27 settled close

Crude gave back its war premium for a third session and every maturity sold anyway — 2026-08-26 settled close

The mines came out of Hormuz and the flow did not come back — and while crude sold the geopolitics, gold and bitcoin priced the Treasury buying its own long bond.

Sanctions day: crude fell, gold was named a target and rose, and the near-dated Hormuz toll bands were bid.

The negotiated exit from Hormuz was priced out. The tolled exit was bid.

Settled session 2026-08-20 · the curve rose against an enlarged buyback · silver led the metals

Settled session 2026-08-19 · duration, havens and risk all bid · the dollar paid

Gold and silver were liquidated while the seaborne barrel rose — and the live transit odds tightened rather than loosened

Peace made a new high and passage a new low over a weekend with no cash session — and the storage band reversed

The ceasefire is strengthening and the waterway is not reopening — and only one of those is priced

The strait left the calendar year while the S&P made a record

A ceasefire at ninety-nine and a reopening at four, on deadlines two days apart — and a market that sold volatility to a six-week low into them

Peace priced, passage tolled — the reopening curve crosses its own mirror

Peace priced, passage re-dated — the reopening curve breaks at every horizon

A soft payroll eased the path for rates — onto a sector that has just changed how it funds itself

Friday 2026-08-07 - the Fed talked about hiking and gold had its best week since January

Tuesday 2026-08-04 - the oil market priced the war ending on a statement Tehran denies, and almost nothing else took the trade

Friday 2026-07-31 - equities melted up and sorted AI winners violently while the curve steepened and the dollar cracked: the credibility discount widened through the rally

Thursday 2026-07-30 - a divided Fed held and the bond market pushed borrowing costs to a 19-year high while the dollar cracked and gold hit a record: a credibility discount, not a hawkish repricing; and the AI-capex reckoning split Microsoft from Meta

Wednesday 2026-07-22 - the diplomatic flicker died and the Iran war entrenched (a 10th night, a widening front to Saudi Arabia, a nuclear-site threat), sending Brent to $94 (Goldman eyes $120) and gold to a record above $4,100; a chip-led equity bounce runs against it

Saturday 2026-07-18 - the week's midweek relief (a benign CPI, a walked-back Hormuz toll) broke Friday on its two ignored risks: a cheap Chinese AI model sent chips into a bear market, and the discounted oil shock returned with Brent at $88

Thursday 2026-07-16 - Trump walks back the 20% Hormuz toll and, with a benign CPI and upbeat bank earnings, stocks bid and the war premium unwinds - but a fourth night of strikes keeps the Strait shut and oil near $80: the headline tax is gone, the supply shock isn't

Wednesday 2026-07-15 - a benign June CPI takes a July hike off the table and gives stocks a modest relief bid, but gold refuses to rally and Trump's 20% Hormuz toll keeps oil near $80 - a forward oil shock the print can't see

Monday 2026-07-13 - the Iran conflict re-escalates into a fight for Hormuz control; oil spikes and futures slip into the CPI-and-earnings verdict week

Saturday 2026-07-11 - the week's wrap: whiplash ends at S&P highs on fading breadth and rising yields; next week is CPI + earnings

Friday 2026-07-10 - the oil premium drains on de-escalation and the relief rally broadens into small-caps, but a split Fed keeps the anchor

Thursday 2026-07-09 - the oil shock hardens into a trend, hawkish Fed minutes pin the ceiling, and the tech trade unwinds

Wednesday 2026-07-08 - the ceasefire ends, oil spikes, and an oil-led risk-off slams the rate ceiling back through 5%

Tuesday 2026-07-07 - a soft jobs print eases the rate ceiling; watch the undercurrent beneath an AI-led tape

Monday 2026-07-06 - the reopen after the July 4th weekend

Wednesday 2026-07-02 - markets as of the 2 July session

Wednesday 2026-07-01 - markets as of the 1 July session

Thursday 2026-06-25 - markets as of the 24 June session; PCE due today

Monday 2026-06-22 - week ahead; markets as of the 18 June session

Sunday 2026-06-21 — markets as of the 18 June session

Emerging markets outperform sharply as US short rates rise and European equities retreat.

Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf.