697 relationships, 56 stopped behaving.
Out of 1,347 Fridays since 2001, this is the 211th most unsettled.
Every week we check how 697 pairs of markets stand to each other. This week the breaks gather in volatility and equity regions: 33 of 176 pairs, where a normal Friday has 9. Bonds have not joined in.
02 · How severe? measured against a normal Friday
1× = the median week since 2001 · 56 of 697 pairs breaking
a normal Friday 1×
last week 3.4×
Oct 2008 · 14×
worst on record · Feb 2020 · 22×
this week 2.9×
Height
2.9×
a normal Friday. Elevated: weeks this high come 16 in 100. Feb 2020 peaked at 22×, Oct 2008 at 14×.
Breadth
2 of 7 families hot: volatility and equity regions. A family is hot when three times as many of its pairs break as on a normal Friday.
Direction
week 2
Falling, 3.4× → 2.9×, second week above the Elevated line (2.1×). Last time it stood here on the way down: Jun 2026.
Reach into bonds
Not yet.
8 of 140 bond pairs breaking, where a normal Friday has 9. Credit: 6 of 112, normal 6.
03 · Where? all 697, one mark per pair · a gap came apart · a heavy mark moved closer
breaking this week · on a normal Friday
Volatility
12 of 56 · normal 3
Equity regions
21 of 120 · normal 6
US sectors
7 of 45 · normal 3
Credit
6 of 112 · normal 6
Bonds
8 of 140 · normal 9
Commodities
1 of 112 · normal 6
FX and crypto
1 of 112 · normal 7
holdscame apartmoved closerVolatility: 12 breaking where a normal Friday has 3. Bonds: 8 where normal is 9. This first reading is provisional: 56 pairs have no reading yet and are filled in next Saturday.
04 · Which?
Ten relationships that stopped behaving.
The ones you can name, ranked by how unusual. Of the 56, 8 are new this week; 48 were breaking last week too. A pair stays listed while it is more than two standard deviations from its own past.
- 01FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.09 · z −3.4
- 02FTSE 100 ⟋ JakartaUsually move together; now they move against each other.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.35 · z −3.2
- 03Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPCUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.26 · z −3.2
- 04Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.11 · z −3.1
- 05Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY creditUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.30 · z −3.0
- 06SMI ⟋ JakartaUsually move together; now they move against each other.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.28 · z −2.9
- 07US Tech ⟋ US DiscretionaryUsually move together; much less so now.also last week · came apart · correlation 0.34 · z −2.9
- 08KOSPI ⟋ SensexUsually move together; now they move against each other.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.31 · z −2.9
- 09US Staples ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.31 · z −2.8
- 10KOSPI ⟋ TIPS (TIP)Usually move together; now they move against each other.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.43 · z −2.8
Left the list since last Friday: Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex (z −2.6 → −2.0) · Sensex — US 10y Treasury (z +2.4 → +1.3) · FTSE 100 ⟋ TAIEX (z −2.4 → −1.9) · and 15 more
The other 46 are real but not readable as a list. They are all in the field above, one mark each; here they are in a table.
| Family | Pair | Direction | Correlation | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility | FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.09 | −3.4 |
| Equity regions | FTSE 100 ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.35 | −3.2 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.26 | −3.2 |
| Volatility | Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.11 | −3.1 |
| Credit | Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY credit | came apart | −0.30 | −3.0 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.28 | −2.9 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary | came apart | 0.34 | −2.9 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.31 | −2.9 |
| Volatility | US Staples ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.31 | −2.8 |
| Bonds | KOSPI ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.43 | −2.8 |
| Equity regions | FTSE 100 ⟋ KOSPI | came apart | −0.41 | −2.8 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.32 | −2.7 |
| Volatility | SMI ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.09 | −2.7 |
| Volatility | Jakarta — VIX (equity vol) | moved closer | −0.65 | +2.7 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Staples | came apart | −0.56 | −2.6 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.41 | −2.6 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | −0.23 | −2.5 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ KOSPI | came apart | −0.45 | −2.5 |
| Volatility | US Financials ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.17 | −2.5 |
| Volatility | TSX ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.19 | −2.5 |
| Commodities | Hang Seng — Gold | moved closer | 0.49 | +2.5 |
| FX and crypto | US Utilities ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.42 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | 0.03 | −2.4 |
| Credit | US Tech ⟋ US IG credit | came apart | 0.22 | −2.4 |
| Volatility | US Materials ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.01 | −2.4 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Real estate | came apart | −0.31 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | TAIEX ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.25 | −2.4 |
| US sectors | US Industrials ⟋ US Real estate | came apart | 0.24 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ FTSE 100 | came apart | 0.03 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | Sensex ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.27 | −2.3 |
| Bonds | SMI — TIPS (TIP) | moved closer | 0.65 | +2.3 |
| Equity regions | TSX ⟋ Bovespa | came apart | −0.08 | −2.3 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Financials | came apart | −0.13 | −2.3 |
| Credit | Tadawul — EM corporate credit | moved closer | 0.57 | +2.2 |
| Bonds | US Tech ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.05 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.20 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ SMI | came apart | 0.06 | −2.2 |
| Credit | US Tech ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | 0.06 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | US Real estate ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.14 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Bovespa | came apart | −0.16 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.07 | −2.2 |
| Credit | Tadawul — US HY credit | moved closer | 0.57 | +2.1 |
| Bonds | US Financials ⟋ US 10y Treasury | came apart | 0.45 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ TSX | came apart | −0.15 | −2.1 |
| US sectors | US Industrials ⟋ US Staples | came apart | 0.04 | −2.1 |
| Volatility | US Health ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.13 | −2.1 |
| Credit | US Discretionary ⟋ US HY credit | came apart | 0.31 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | Mexico IPC ⟋ Tadawul | came apart | −0.21 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | US Tech ⟋ Curve steepening (2s10s) | came apart | 0.27 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | Nikkei 225 ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.38 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | FTSE 100 ⟋ Nikkei 225 | came apart | −0.19 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | FTSE 100 — Sensex | moved closer | 0.66 | +2.0 |
| US sectors | US Industrials ⟋ US Materials | came apart | 0.41 | −2.0 |
| Volatility | US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.24 | −2.0 |
| Bonds | EM (EEM) ⟋ Curve steepening (2s10s) | came apart | 0.26 | −2.0 |
| Equity regions | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ SMI | came apart | 0.43 | −2.0 |
05 · When before?
Three times before. Friday by Friday, from the week each one crossed.
One square a Friday, fourteen Fridays from the week the index crossed the Elevated line. Colour is height. The two worst on record and the most recent.
Episode
12468101214
What followed
NowOct 2026 · week 2, open
2.9× in week 2, elevated. Two families hot, bonds not yet. Next week fills the dashed square.
2020Feb 2020 · 20 weeks
Peaked at 22× in week 4, the worst on record. Back under the Elevated line after 20 weeks.
2008Aug 2008 · 23 weeks
Peaked at 14× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 23 weeks.
Apr 2026Feb 2026 · 18 weeks
Peaked at 4.7× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 18 weeks.
calmelevatedhighseverenext Friday211th most unsettled of 1,347 Fridays since 2001
06 · Since last Friday
The same colour.
What moved in seven days, and what didn't.
- Severity, against a normal Friday
- 3.4× → 2.9×
- Pairs behaving unlike their past
- 68 → 56
- Families hot
- 2 of 7 → 2 of 7
- New on the list
- 8 pairs · Hang Seng — Gold among them
- Reach into bonds
- 10 of 140 → 8 of 140 · not yet
07 · What next?
The next square is written on Saturday 31 October 2026.
Every Saturday morning, for the week that ended on Friday.
753 pairs in seven families, each family weighing the same · correlation of weekly returns, weighted to the last few months (half-life nine weeks), Friday to Friday · a pair breaks when that correlation is two standard deviations away from its own previous two years (Fisher z, spread floored at sampling noise) · Calm, Elevated, High and Severe are the 75th, 90th and 97th percentiles of every week since 2001 · a normal Friday is the median week since 2001 · derived statistics only, no prices · since 1997, recomputed each week, the first published value kept.