Theme · updated 1 October 2026
Credit
Spreads, issuance and the default cycle — where stress shows before equities admit it.
What the desk thinks
Current positions on this theme — each dated and cited to the editions behind it.
Every morning that read this theme
A milder US inflation number failed to lower long-term borrowing costs
1 October 2026A milder US inflation number failed to lower long-term borrowing costs, and September's losses in company debt lined up by maturity rather than quality. The market is charging for time, not yet for failure.
Over nine sessions to Friday's close the five largest listed private-credit managers fell…
28 September 2026The private-credit managers fell hard while their loans barely moved, the analysts changed nothing, and a long bond near 5.5% is doing its work outside the bond market.
Iran offered a plan to reopen Hormuz within a week and Brent fell 2.14%
26 September 2026Crude dropped on Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz, the front end rallied, and the thirty-year still made a new high — while credit, not stocks, began to feel it.
Brent +5.83% with gold +1.04% and the euro +0.43% into the first European hike of the cycle —…
10 September 2026Brent +5.83% with gold +1.04% and the euro +0.43% into the first European hike of the cycle — the decision is priced, its cost is not
Cyclicals and emerging markets outperform while US–Iran asset-freeze dispute keeps energy risk…
19 June 2026Cyclicals and emerging markets outperform while US–Iran asset-freeze dispute keeps energy risk premia elevated.
Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain…
18 June 2026Equities and gold sell off sharply as Fed signals a 2026 hike while 20,000 sailors remain stranded in the Gulf.
Preliminary diplomatic agreement strips Middle East risk premium, reshaping commodity and…
17 June 2026Preliminary diplomatic agreement strips Middle East risk premium, reshaping commodity and credit markets today.
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