Antevo · Tremor Watch · This week · JSON · Archive · Instruments
669 relationships, 87 stopped behaving.
Out of 1,350 Fridays since 2001, this is the 118th most unsettled.
Every week we check how 669 pairs of markets stand to each other. This week the breaks gather in volatility and equity regions: 41 of 176 pairs, where a normal Friday has 9. Bonds have not joined in.
02 · How severe? measured against a normal Friday
1× = the median week since 2001 · 87 of 669 pairs breaking
a normal Friday 1×
last week 3.7×
Oct 2008 · 14×
worst on record · Feb 2020 · 21×
this week 4.0×
Height
4.0×
a normal Friday. High: weeks this high come 9 in 100. Feb 2020 peaked at 21×, Oct 2008 at 14×.
Breadth
2 of 7 families hot: volatility and equity regions. A family is hot when three times as many of its pairs break as on a normal Friday.
Direction
week 5
Rising, 3.7× → 4.0×, fifth week above the Elevated line (2.1×). Last time it stood here on the way up: May 2026.
Reach into bonds
Not yet.
19 of 112 bond pairs breaking, where a normal Friday has 8. Credit: 7 of 112, normal 6.
03 · Where? all 669, one mark per pair · a gap came apart · a heavy mark moved closer
breaking this week · on a normal Friday
Volatility
16 of 56 · normal 3
Equity regions
25 of 120 · normal 6
Bonds
19 of 112 · normal 8
Commodities
8 of 112 · normal 6
FX and crypto
9 of 112 · normal 7
Credit
7 of 112 · normal 6
US sectors
3 of 45 · normal 3
holdscame apartmoved closerVolatility: 16 breaking where a normal Friday has 3. Bonds: 19 where normal is 8. This first reading is provisional: 84 pairs have no reading yet and are filled in next Saturday.
04 · Which?
Ten relationships that stopped behaving.
The ones you can name, ranked by how unusual. Of the 87, 37 are new this week; 50 were breaking last week too. A pair stays listed while it is more than two standard deviations from its own past.
- 01Nikkei 225 ⟋ SensexUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.45 · z −4.0
- 02Sensex ⟋ TAIEXUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.56 · z −3.9
- 03Hang Seng ⟋ TAIEXUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.48 · z −3.7
- 04Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.also last week · came apart · correlation 0.24 · z −3.6
- 05Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.also last week · came apart · correlation 0.36 · z −3.5
- 06US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.also last week · came apart · correlation 0.03 · z −3.3
- 07TAIEX ⟋ US 10y TreasuryUsually move together; now they move against each other.since 30 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.44 · z −3.3
- 08Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPCUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.37 · z −3.3
- 09Nikkei 225 ⟋ Hang SengUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.43 · z −3.2
- 10KOSPI ⟋ SensexUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.47 · z −3.2
Left the list since last Friday: FTSE 100 ⟋ Jakarta (z −2.9 → −2.0) · FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol) (z −2.8 → −1.8) · US Financials ⟋ VIX (equity vol) (z −2.7 → −2.0) · and 23 more
The other 77 are real but not readable as a list. They are all in the field above, one mark each; here they are in a table.
| Family | Pair | Direction | Correlation | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.45 | −4.0 |
| Equity regions | Sensex ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.56 | −3.9 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.48 | −3.7 |
| Volatility | Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.24 | −3.6 |
| Volatility | Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.36 | −3.5 |
| Volatility | US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | 0.03 | −3.3 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ US 10y Treasury | came apart | −0.44 | −3.3 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.37 | −3.3 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Hang Seng | came apart | −0.43 | −3.2 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.47 | −3.2 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.28 | −3.2 |
| Volatility | TAIEX — VIX (equity vol) | moved closer | −0.77 | +3.2 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary | came apart | 0.16 | −3.2 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.41 | −3.2 |
| Volatility | Hang Seng ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.33 | −3.1 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ Intl bonds (BNDX) | came apart | −0.45 | −3.1 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.13 | −3.1 |
| Commodities | Hang Seng — Gold | moved closer | 0.62 | +3.0 |
| Bonds | US Tech ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.12 | −3.0 |
| Commodities | Tadawul ⟋ Natural gas | came apart | 0.52 | −2.8 |
| Bonds | S&P 500 ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.11 | −2.8 |
| FX and crypto | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Swiss franc vs USD | came apart | −0.49 | −2.8 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng ⟋ KOSPI | came apart | −0.38 | −2.8 |
| FX and crypto | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.30 | −2.8 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Hang Seng | came apart | −0.23 | −2.7 |
| Bonds | World (ACWI) ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.16 | −2.7 |
| FX and crypto | US Financials ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.37 | −2.7 |
| Volatility | World (ACWI) ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.19 | −2.7 |
| Volatility | S&P 500 ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.16 | −2.7 |
| Bonds | US Industrials ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.03 | −2.6 |
| Volatility | US Discretionary ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.36 | −2.6 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.17 | −2.6 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.49 | −2.6 |
| FX and crypto | US Industrials ⟋ Swiss franc vs USD | came apart | −0.45 | −2.5 |
| FX and crypto | US Utilities ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.49 | −2.5 |
| Equity regions | TAIEX ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.34 | −2.5 |
| US sectors | US Industrials ⟋ US Real estate | came apart | 0.17 | −2.5 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 — TAIEX | moved closer | 0.77 | +2.5 |
| Bonds | Jakarta ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.38 | −2.5 |
| FX and crypto | US Industrials ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.41 | −2.5 |
| Credit | Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY credit | came apart | −0.26 | −2.5 |
| Commodities | Sensex ⟋ Copper | came apart | −0.24 | −2.4 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Real estate | came apart | −0.39 | −2.4 |
| Bonds | Nikkei 225 ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.16 | −2.4 |
| Credit | Jakarta — US HY credit | moved closer | 0.56 | +2.4 |
| Bonds | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.38 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | ASX 200 ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.05 | −2.4 |
| Credit | Tadawul — Euro HY credit | moved closer | 0.63 | +2.4 |
| Credit | US Tech ⟋ US IG credit | came apart | 0.20 | −2.3 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.23 | −2.3 |
| Bonds | KOSPI ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.36 | −2.3 |
| Bonds | EM (EEM) ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.07 | −2.3 |
| Volatility | EM (EEM) ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.13 | −2.3 |
| Volatility | US Industrials ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.12 | −2.3 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | −0.22 | −2.3 |
| Volatility | TAIEX ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | 0.12 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng — Sensex | moved closer | 0.62 | +2.2 |
| Credit | Tadawul — US HY credit | moved closer | 0.59 | +2.2 |
| Volatility | KOSPI ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | 0.07 | −2.2 |
| Credit | US Tech ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | 0.01 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | Nikkei 225 ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | 0.06 | −2.2 |
| Bonds | Hang Seng ⟋ Intl bonds (BNDX) | came apart | 0.38 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | 0.03 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | TSX ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.19 | −2.2 |
| Bonds | Bovespa ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.13 | −2.2 |
| Bonds | Tadawul ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.36 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | 0.23 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ Bovespa | came apart | −0.25 | −2.2 |
| Credit | Hang Seng ⟋ EM corporate credit | came apart | 0.04 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | ASX 200 ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.15 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.10 | −2.2 |
| Commodities | SMI ⟋ Silver | came apart | −0.07 | −2.1 |
| FX and crypto | US Tech ⟋ Swiss franc vs USD | came apart | −0.38 | −2.1 |
| Commodities | US Utilities ⟋ Silver | came apart | −0.26 | −2.1 |
| FX and crypto | US Discretionary ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.03 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | KOSPI ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.18 | −2.1 |
| Commodities | Sensex ⟋ Natural gas | came apart | 0.20 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Hang Seng | came apart | −0.02 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | 0.09 | −2.1 |
| Commodities | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Copper | came apart | 0.15 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | Nikkei 225 ⟋ TIPS (TIP) | came apart | −0.40 | −2.1 |
| FX and crypto | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Euro vs USD | came apart | −0.29 | −2.1 |
| Volatility | US Real estate ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.17 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ TSX | came apart | 0.39 | −2.1 |
| Commodities | US Energy — Gold | moved closer | −0.48 | +2.0 |
| Bonds | KOSPI ⟋ US 10y Treasury | came apart | −0.43 | −2.0 |
| Equity regions | Bovespa ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | 0.15 | −2.0 |
05 · When before?
Three times before. Friday by Friday, from the week each one crossed.
One square a Friday, fourteen Fridays from the week the index crossed the Elevated line. Colour is height. The two worst on record and the most recent.
Episode
124568101214
What followed
NowOct 2026 · week 5, open
4.0× in week 5, high. Two families hot, bonds not yet. Next week fills the dashed square.
2020Feb 2020 · 20 weeks
Peaked at 21× in week 4, the worst on record. Back under the Elevated line after 20 weeks. Replay it in the field · on the radar.
2008Aug 2008 · 23 weeks
Peaked at 14× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 23 weeks. Replay it on the radar.
Apr 2026Feb 2026 · 18 weeks
Peaked at 4.7× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 18 weeks.
calmelevatedhighseverenext Friday118th most unsettled of 1,350 Fridays since 2001
06 · And US shares?
Fear is normal. Participation has been narrow since 16 Oct.
A second reading, beside the index and not part of it. One market, US shares, read two ways: how much fear is priced in, and how many shares are taking part.
Fear priced in
Normal.
More than in 79 of 100 Fridays since 2010. Last week: normal.
Participation
Narrow.
Fewer shares taking part than in 81 of 100 Fridays since 2010. Last week: narrow.
Both at once
13 in 100
Fridays since 2010 with fear above normal and participation narrow. Last time: 9 May 2025.
Beside the index
Apart.
The Tremor index stands at 4.0× a normal Friday, High. Relationships are breaking while fear is not priced in.
The last 14 Fridays
Fear priced in
Participation
14 Aug13 Nov
low fear · broadnormalfear above normal · narrowhigh fear · very narrow881 Fridays since 2010 · the middle box is normal
Fear: realised volatility of US shares and credit spreads. Participation: the share of US stocks above their 200-day average, advances against declines, and the index within its own year’s range. Each is measured against its own past. Derived statistics only, no prices. Descriptive, not a forecast.
07 · Since last Friday
The same colour.
What moved in seven days, and what didn't.
- Severity, against a normal Friday
- 3.7× → 4.0×
- Pairs behaving unlike their past
- 78 → 87
- Families hot
- 2 of 7 → 2 of 7
- New on the list
- 37 pairs · TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP) among them
- US shares: fear and participation
- normal, narrow → normal, narrow
- Reach into bonds
- 10 of 140 → 19 of 112 · not yet
The film what Tremor Watch is
Is the ground moving? Tremor Watch in a minute and a half.
A seismograph can’t tell you when the next earthquake will come; it tells you whether the ground is moving. Tremor Watch does that for markets, whose ground is their relationships: every week it counts the ones that stopped behaving like their own past two years, with a reading for every week since 1997.
1 min 26 s · in English, with captions · The pictures are illustrations; the index since 1997 is the real reading · Descriptive, not a forecast.
08 · What next?
This is the reading for the week ending 13 November 2026, kept as first published.
This week’s reading →
The data is open. Every reading since 1997, as JSON:
api.antevo.ch/v1/public/tremor, and every pair of a week: api.antevo.ch/v1/public/tremor/pairs. Or as a spreadsheet: history.csv, one row for every Friday. Earlier weeks are restated when late data arrives; each week’s own page keeps the figure as first published.Ask your assistant. Tremor Watch is in the Claude and ChatGPT directories: ask Claude or ChatGPT for this week’s reading, the relationships that broke, or the pairs of the market you hold. Add Tremor Watch to Claude · Open Tremor Watch in ChatGPT · other assistants
Cite as “Antevo Tremor Index, week of 2026-11-13”, antevo.ch/tremor-watch/2026-11-13/
Embed the latest reading. Paste this code where you publish. The picture is rewritten every Saturday and links back to this page.
Descriptive, not a forecast. The index measures how many relationships are breaking at once. It says nothing about where prices go next, and it is not advice.
753 pairs in seven families, each family weighing the same · correlation of weekly returns, weighted to the last few months (half-life nine weeks), Friday to Friday · a pair breaks when that correlation is two standard deviations away from its own previous two years (Fisher z, spread floored at sampling noise) · Calm, Elevated, High and Severe are the 75th, 90th and 97th percentiles of every week since 2001 · a normal Friday is the median week since 2001 · derived statistics only, no prices · since 1997, recomputed each week, the first published value kept.