Antevo · Tremor Watch · This week · JSON · Archive · Instruments
669 relationships, 77 stopped behaving.
Out of 1,349 Fridays since 2001, this is the 126th most unsettled.
Every week we check how 669 pairs of markets stand to each other. This week the breaks gather in volatility and equity regions: 44 of 176 pairs, where a normal Friday has 9. Bonds have not joined in.
02 · How severe? measured against a normal Friday
1× = the median week since 2001 · 77 of 669 pairs breaking
a normal Friday 1×
last week 3.0×
Oct 2008 · 14×
worst on record · Feb 2020 · 21×
this week 3.8×
Height
3.8×
a normal Friday. High: weeks this high come 9 in 100. Feb 2020 peaked at 21×, Oct 2008 at 14×.
Breadth
2 of 7 families hot: volatility and equity regions. A family is hot when three times as many of its pairs break as on a normal Friday.
Direction
week 4
Rising, 3.0× → 3.8×, fourth week above the Elevated line (2.1×). Last time it stood here on the way up: May 2026.
Reach into bonds
Not yet.
9 of 112 bond pairs breaking, where a normal Friday has 8. Credit: 11 of 112, normal 6.
03 · Where? all 669, one mark per pair · a gap came apart · a heavy mark moved closer
breaking this week · on a normal Friday
Volatility
16 of 56 · normal 3
Equity regions
28 of 120 · normal 6
US sectors
6 of 45 · normal 3
Credit
11 of 112 · normal 6
Bonds
9 of 112 · normal 8
Commodities
5 of 112 · normal 6
FX and crypto
2 of 112 · normal 7
holdscame apartmoved closerVolatility: 16 breaking where a normal Friday has 3. Bonds: 9 where normal is 8. This first reading is provisional: 84 pairs have no reading yet and are filled in next Saturday.
04 · Which?
Ten relationships that stopped behaving.
The ones you can name, ranked by how unusual. Of the 77, 33 are new this week; 44 were breaking last week too. A pair stays listed while it is more than two standard deviations from its own past.
- 01Sensex ⟋ TAIEXUsually move together; now they move against each other.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.67 · z −5.2
- 02Nikkei 225 ⟋ SensexUsually move together; now they move against each other.new this week · came apart · correlation −0.52 · z −4.4
- 03Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.44 · z −4.0
- 04US Tech ⟋ US DiscretionaryUsually move together; much less so now.also last week · came apart · correlation 0.11 · z −3.6
- 05Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol)Usually a hedge for each other; now they move together.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation 0.22 · z −3.6
- 06KOSPI ⟋ SensexUsually move together; now they move against each other.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.49 · z −3.5
- 07Hang Seng ⟋ TAIEXUsually move together; now they move against each other.new this week · came apart · correlation −0.37 · z −3.4
- 08Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPCUsually move together; now they move against each other.also last week · came apart · correlation −0.36 · z −3.4
- 09S&P 500 ⟋ SensexUsually move together; now they move against each other.new this week · came apart · correlation −0.31 · z −3.4
- 10US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol)Usually a hedge for each other; much less so now.since 16 Oct · came apart · correlation −0.02 · z −3.1
Left the list since last Friday: TAIEX ⟋ TIPS (TIP) (z −2.9 → −1.6) · Sensex ⟋ Jakarta (z −2.5 → −1.7) · KOSPI ⟋ TIPS (TIP) (z −2.4 → −1.8) · and 13 more
The other 67 are real but not readable as a list. They are all in the field above, one mark each; here they are in a table.
| Family | Pair | Direction | Correlation | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity regions | Sensex ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.67 | −5.2 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.52 | −4.4 |
| Volatility | Sensex ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.44 | −4.0 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Discretionary | came apart | 0.11 | −3.6 |
| Volatility | Mexico IPC ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.22 | −3.6 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.49 | −3.5 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.37 | −3.4 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.36 | −3.4 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Sensex | came apart | −0.31 | −3.4 |
| Volatility | US Tech ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.02 | −3.1 |
| Credit | US Tech ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | −0.16 | −3.1 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.35 | −3.0 |
| Volatility | US Discretionary ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.30 | −3.0 |
| Credit | US Tech ⟋ US IG credit | came apart | 0.10 | −2.9 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.09 | −2.9 |
| Equity regions | FTSE 100 ⟋ Jakarta | came apart | −0.35 | −2.9 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Hang Seng | came apart | −0.33 | −2.8 |
| Commodities | Hang Seng — Gold | moved closer | 0.57 | +2.8 |
| Equity regions | ASX 200 ⟋ TAIEX | came apart | −0.13 | −2.8 |
| US sectors | US Industrials ⟋ US Real estate | came apart | 0.14 | −2.8 |
| Volatility | FTSE 100 ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.02 | −2.8 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Real estate | came apart | −0.43 | −2.7 |
| Bonds | US Tech ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.05 | −2.7 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.48 | −2.7 |
| Credit | Mexico IPC ⟋ US HY credit | came apart | −0.29 | −2.7 |
| Volatility | US Financials ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.07 | −2.7 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng — Sensex | moved closer | 0.66 | +2.6 |
| Equity regions | Hang Seng ⟋ KOSPI | came apart | −0.32 | −2.6 |
| Credit | TAIEX ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | −0.12 | −2.6 |
| Equity regions | TAIEX ⟋ Mexico IPC | came apart | −0.34 | −2.6 |
| Commodities | Tadawul ⟋ Natural gas | came apart | 0.47 | −2.6 |
| Volatility | TSX ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.12 | −2.5 |
| Equity regions | Nikkei 225 ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | −0.02 | −2.5 |
| Credit | S&P 500 ⟋ US IG credit | came apart | 0.27 | −2.5 |
| Commodities | Sensex ⟋ Copper | came apart | −0.24 | −2.5 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | −0.25 | −2.5 |
| Volatility | US Staples ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.28 | −2.4 |
| Bonds | SMI — TIPS (TIP) | moved closer | 0.67 | +2.4 |
| Volatility | US Real estate ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.26 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | SMI ⟋ Bovespa | came apart | −0.29 | −2.4 |
| Volatility | Hang Seng ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.19 | −2.4 |
| Volatility | ASX 200 ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | −0.11 | −2.4 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Financials | came apart | −0.21 | −2.4 |
| FX and crypto | US Utilities ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.44 | −2.4 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ ASX 200 | came apart | 0.20 | −2.3 |
| Credit | Nikkei 225 ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | −0.07 | −2.3 |
| Equity regions | Bovespa ⟋ Tadawul | came apart | −0.30 | −2.3 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ TSX | came apart | 0.36 | −2.3 |
| Equity regions | Euro Stoxx 50 ⟋ Bovespa | came apart | −0.23 | −2.3 |
| Volatility | TAIEX — VIX (equity vol) | moved closer | −0.67 | +2.3 |
| Volatility | SMI ⟋ VIX (equity vol) | came apart | 0.03 | −2.2 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ US 10y Treasury | came apart | −0.25 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | KOSPI ⟋ TSX | came apart | −0.19 | −2.2 |
| Bonds | TAIEX ⟋ Intl bonds (BNDX) | came apart | −0.29 | −2.2 |
| Credit | US Industrials ⟋ US IG credit | came apart | 0.03 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | S&P 500 ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.25 | −2.2 |
| Credit | US Discretionary ⟋ US HY credit | came apart | 0.28 | −2.2 |
| Credit | S&P 500 ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | 0.06 | −2.2 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ SMI | came apart | 0.06 | −2.2 |
| Volatility | World (ACWI) ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | −0.29 | −2.2 |
| Commodities | Sensex ⟋ Natural gas | came apart | 0.20 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | S&P 500 ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.25 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | Bovespa ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | −0.10 | −2.1 |
| US sectors | US Tech ⟋ US Staples | came apart | −0.49 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ Hang Seng | came apart | −0.11 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | US Financials ⟋ US 10y Treasury | came apart | 0.48 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | ASX 200 ⟋ Bovespa | came apart | −0.16 | −2.1 |
| Volatility | KOSPI ⟋ MOVE (bond vol) | came apart | 0.03 | −2.1 |
| Bonds | World (ACWI) ⟋ EM bonds (EMB) | came apart | 0.31 | −2.1 |
| Credit | World (ACWI) ⟋ Euro HY credit | came apart | 0.09 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | S&P 500 ⟋ FTSE 100 | came apart | 0.08 | −2.1 |
| Equity regions | FTSE 100 ⟋ KOSPI | came apart | −0.30 | −2.1 |
| Commodities | Shanghai — Silver | moved closer | 0.67 | +2.1 |
| Bonds | Sensex — Intl bonds (BNDX) | moved closer | 0.59 | +2.1 |
| Credit | Tadawul — Euro HY credit | moved closer | 0.58 | +2.1 |
| US sectors | US Financials ⟋ US Industrials | came apart | 0.27 | −2.0 |
| FX and crypto | US Financials ⟋ Bitcoin | came apart | −0.25 | −2.0 |
05 · When before?
Three times before. Friday by Friday, from the week each one crossed.
One square a Friday, fourteen Fridays from the week the index crossed the Elevated line. Colour is height. The two worst on record and the most recent.
Episode
12468101214
What followed
NowOct 2026 · week 4, open
3.8× in week 4, high. Two families hot, bonds not yet. Next week fills the dashed square.
2020Feb 2020 · 20 weeks
Peaked at 21× in week 4, the worst on record. Back under the Elevated line after 20 weeks. Replay it in the field · on the radar.
2008Aug 2008 · 23 weeks
Peaked at 14× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 23 weeks. Replay it on the radar.
Apr 2026Feb 2026 · 18 weeks
Peaked at 4.7× in week 10. Back under the Elevated line after 18 weeks.
calmelevatedhighseverenext Friday126th most unsettled of 1,349 Fridays since 2001
06 · Since last Friday
One square darker.
What moved in seven days, and what didn't.
- Severity, against a normal Friday
- 3.0× → 3.8×
- Pairs behaving unlike their past
- 62 → 77
- Families hot
- 2 of 7 → 2 of 7
- New on the list
- 33 pairs · Nikkei 225 ⟋ Sensex among them
- Reach into bonds
- 9 of 140 → 9 of 112 · not yet
The film what Tremor Watch is
Is the ground moving? Tremor Watch in a minute and a half.
A seismograph can’t tell you when the next earthquake will come; it tells you whether the ground is moving. Tremor Watch does that for markets, whose ground is their relationships: every week it counts the ones that stopped behaving like their own past two years, with a reading for every week since 1997.
1 min 26 s · in English, with captions · The pictures are illustrations; the index since 1997 is the real reading · Descriptive, not a forecast.
07 · What next?
This is the reading for the week ending 6 November 2026, kept as first published.
This week’s reading →
753 pairs in seven families, each family weighing the same · correlation of weekly returns, weighted to the last few months (half-life nine weeks), Friday to Friday · a pair breaks when that correlation is two standard deviations away from its own previous two years (Fisher z, spread floored at sampling noise) · Calm, Elevated, High and Severe are the 75th, 90th and 97th percentiles of every week since 2001 · a normal Friday is the median week since 2001 · derived statistics only, no prices · since 1997, recomputed each week, the first published value kept.