The engine's departure series read Hormuz at 295 on 2026-09-24 against a thirty-day mean of 300.3 — baseline, on a day Brent rose more than 3% on a war threat.
The US Gulf Coast ran 51 against 55.5. Port congestion: Rotterdam 315 vessels against 282.0, Hamburg 36 against 25.5, Antwerp 425 against 386.0, Los Angeles/Long Beach 52 against 54.8.
Tanker traffic through Hormuz was normal despite Iran's threats. European ports are busier than usual, which fits stronger European business activity. Iran's threat against the Indian Ocean matters because those routes have no easy bypass.
So-what: Northern European ports are running well above baseline while the US import gateway sits slightly below. That fits the week's strong German and euro-area business data, and it means freight pressure is building on the Asia-Europe side rather than the transpacific.
What to watch. Northern European port counts; Hormuz departures; Red Sea escort arrangements.