Freight, chokepoints and the cost of moving cargo — read daily against the lanes that carry it.
Weekly · 8 November 2026Shut at sea, shallow at home
Covers 2 to 8 November. The next edition is on Sunday 15 November.
Two chokepoints for Switzerland: Hormuz at sea, Kaub on the Rhine
Hormuz stayed all but closed through a week of strikes, mines and talks, with 26 transits in IMF PortWatch's latest week. Closer to home, the Rhine at Kaub was forecast to fall to a few centimetres, standard barges could no longer pass, and Bern released more jet fuel from its reserves.
Germany's waterways agency expected the clearance at Kaub, the shallowest point between Rotterdam and Basel, to fall to about 5 centimetres by 9 November, against more than 150 in a normal year; only barges built for very low water could still pass ([Briefs Finance, 5 Nov](https://www.briefs.co/news/rhine-squeeze-falling-water-threatens-barge-traffic-lifts-fu/)).
For a Swiss family the two chokepoints add up in the same bill. Hormuz sets the price of the oil; the Rhine sets the cost of getting it to Basel. Heating oil before tax is 92% dearer than a year ago, and the barge freight on top of it is near a record.
| Measure | This week | 3 months ago | 1 year ago |
|---|
| Strait of Hormuz transits, week to 30 Oct | 26 | 34−24% | 698−96% |
| Bab el-Mandeb transits, week to 30 Oct | 180 | 207−13% | 249−28% |
| Suez Canal transits, week to 30 Oct | 298 | 292+2.1% | 289+3.1% |
| EU heavy fuel oil >1% sulphur before tax, € a tonne | 708 | 546+30% | 436+62% |
| EU diesel before tax, € a litre | 1.35 | 1.21+12% | 0.76+79% |
| EU heating oil before tax, € a litre | 1.26 | 1.01+25% | 0.66+92% |
Change is to this week. Transits: 7 days to 30 Oct 2026, IMF PortWatch's latest published week (it publishes about ten days late), against 25–31 Jul 2026 and 25–31 Oct 2025; every day in each window came back complete. Source: International Monetary Fund, PortWatch. Fuel: European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin, prices of 2 Nov 2026, 3 Aug 2026 and 3 Nov 2025, before tax; heavy fuel oil is an inland price, used here as a proxy for bunker costs, not a port bunker quote.
Hormuz stayed all but closed through a week that had a little of everything. On 3 November the US struck what President Trump called an anti-aircraft site on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Iran called Washington's reply to its seven conditions for reopening the strait unconvincing, and Qatar kept passing proposals between the two (Al Jazeera, 4 Nov). Iran's Revolutionary Guards again said tankers on routes it does not approve had hit mines (Reuters, 5 Nov), and a seafarer was killed when an empty products tanker bound for Bahrain was struck, probably by a missile (gCaptain, 6 Nov). Oman has now called Gulf foreign ministers and Iran's to Salalah on 9 November to back a temporary scheme: ships in through Iranian waters, out mostly through Omani ones (Oman Observer, 8 Nov).
The counts disagree about how shut is shut. IMF PortWatch logged 26 transits in the week to 30 October, 96% fewer than a year earlier. S&P Global's tracking, which adds ships it assumes crossed with transponders off, put October at 750 crossings, a little above September; the head of the International Maritime Organization still told ships to stay away (Hellenic Shipping News, 8 Nov). In the Red Sea, the return goes on: the Suez Canal had its busiest month since the Houthi attacks began in 2023, with revenue nearly doubling on a year earlier (Al-Monitor, 7 Nov), even as PortWatch shows Bab el-Mandeb transits down 13% on the week.
For Switzerland the sharper story this week was the river. Standard barges could no longer pass Kaub, freight for diesel from Rotterdam to Basel stood near a record and rose again in November, and Bern released more jet fuel from its strategic reserves, citing the Rhine and rail interruptions (Briefs Finance, 5 Nov). The price of the oil itself barely moved: EU heating oil before tax eased by a cent to €1.26 a litre in the Oil Bulletin of 2 November, still 92% above a year ago.
Switzerland's supply line
The Rhine, not the Gulf, is this month's bottleneck
- The river: Kaub was forecast to fall to about 5 centimetres by 9 November; only vessels built for very low water could pass, and this low spell has already outlasted 2022's (Briefs Finance, 5 Nov).
- Reserves: the same report says Switzerland drew more jet fuel from its strategic stocks, citing the Rhine and interrupted rail services.
- The price: EU heating oil before tax €1.26 a litre, up 92% on a year ago and 25% on three months ago; diesel €1.35, up 79% (Oil Bulletin, prices of 2 November).
- The sea end: port calls at Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg fell 5.1% to 965 in the week to 30 October (IMF PortWatch); the oil reaches the coast, the river is what narrows.
When the barge cannot pass Kaub, the oil waits in Rotterdam or moves by rail at higher cost. A heating-oil delivery ordered in November carries both the Hormuz price and the Rhine freight.
Questions for the family office
- Which of our properties are on heating oil, and how full are their tanks today?
- Does our supplier price delivery with a low-water surcharge, and is it capped?
- Could a delivery be delayed by weeks if the Rhine stays low into December?
- When did we last fix a heating-oil price, and against which month's level?
Routes and chokepoints
Hormuz: strikes, mines and a meeting in Salalah
- Counts: 26 transits of Hormuz in the week to 30 October, against 34 three months earlier and 698 a year ago; Bab el-Mandeb 180, down 13% on both the week before and three months earlier (IMF PortWatch).
- Force: the US struck Qeshm Island on 3 November; Iran said its demands had not been met (Al Jazeera, 4 Nov). One seafarer was killed on a tanker hit in the Gulf on 5 November (gCaptain, 6 Nov).
- Diplomacy: Gulf and Iranian foreign ministers are reported to meet in Salalah on 9 November on a temporary, managed passage (Oman Observer, 8 Nov).
- Suez: 298 transits in the week to 30 October, 3.1% more than a year ago (IMF PortWatch); October was the canal's busiest month since 2023.
- Storms: GDACS issued only green alerts this week, for three tropical cyclones, none with people in the path of hurricane-force winds.
A managed passage through Iranian and Omani waters would be a corridor, not a reopening. Owners would be choosing to sail under one party's rules, with the other party still at war with it.
Questions for the chartering desk and insurers
- Would our war-risk cover accept a passage routed through Iranian territorial waters?
- What would our sanctions counsel say about transit arrangements agreed with Iran?
- Which fixtures this winter still assume the Cape, and which assume Suez?
- What does our crew-welfare plan say after a seafarer death on a peer's ship?
Freight and fuel
Tankers at records; boxes on Asia–Europe firming
- Tankers: crude tanker earnings reached all-time highs in October, far above any earlier spike, on war risk, insurance and a shortage of compliant ships; ING expects this to keep pushing up the cost of diesel at the pump (ING THINK, 8 Nov).
- Containers: in Freightos' update of 3 November, the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) for Asia–Mediterranean rose 3% to $4,375 per forty-foot container and Asia–North Europe held at about $3,595, despite more ships returning through the Red Sea; Asia–US East Coast cooled 6% to about $9,900 (Freightos, 3 Nov).
- Fuel: EU heavy fuel oil with more than 1% sulphur €708 a tonne before tax, 62% more than a year ago and 30% more than three months ago (Oil Bulletin, prices of 2 November). An inland price, used as a proxy for bunker costs.
The war premium on oil is now paid mostly in freight. A cargo owner pays it on every barrel; a tanker owner earns it but also pays a fuel bill 62% higher than a year ago.
Questions for the fleet manager
- Which of our charters leave the bunker bill with us rather than the charterer?
- How much of this year's tanker earnings depends on Hormuz staying shut?
- Which period charters roll off before a Red Sea and Gulf return?
Sanctions and the shadow fleet
Bern lists 40 vessels after months of silence
- New vessel listings, four weeks to 8 November: 40 by Switzerland (SECO) and 11 by the US (OFAC); none by the UK, whose list last added vessels on 8 October. In the four weeks to 9 August: 28 by OFAC and 7 by the UK.
- Dates: SECO added vessels on 4 November, its first vessel listings since 22 May; OFAC on 5 November.
- False flags: the US sanctioned an India-based network accused of running fake ship registries for Iran's shadow fleet, and warned that serving falsely flagged ships can itself bring penalties (gCaptain, 5 Nov).
- Port fees: the US has suspended its fees on China-linked ships for two months, to 9 January (Hellenic Shipping News, 2 Nov).
Last week we noted that the Swiss list had not changed since May. It has now moved by 40 vessels in a day. A screening done against SECO before 4 November is out of date.
Questions for compliance
- Have all vessels and counterparties been re-screened against SECO's list since 4 November?
- Do our checks verify a ship's flag with the flag state itself, not only its papers?
- Which contracts would be affected by the US port fees if they return on 9 January?
What we see that the tape doesn't
For families with tanker exposure: the strait is shut on one count and open on another
In IMF PortWatch data we compare tanker calls just outside Hormuz, at Fujairah, with Gulf ports inside the strait, and with tanker transits of the strait itself.
| Week to 30 Oct 2026 | Port calls | Of which tankers |
|---|
| Fujairah (outside Hormuz) | 62 | 40 |
| Gulf ports inside Hormuz | 37 | 14 |
| Strait of Hormuz transits | 26 | 7 |
For the second week running, tanker calls at Fujairah outnumber tanker transits of the strait by more than five to one, as they did in our last edition. PortWatch counts ships whose transponders it can see; S&P Global, adding the ships it assumes crossed dark, counts many times more for October. The difference is the traffic that sails without being seen, and that is the traffic sanctions and war-risk cover find hardest to judge. Two weeks of data; we will keep following it.
Question for compliance and insurers
- Do our counterparties' vessels keep their transponders on through the Gulf, and how do we check?
Switzerland meets the war in Hormuz twice. The first time is in the price: oil that cannot leave the Gulf freely, carried by tankers earning records, reaches Europe dearer. The second time is on the Rhine, where a dry autumn has made the last few hundred kilometres to Basel the narrowest part of the whole journey. Diplomacy may open the first chokepoint, though a passage managed by Iran and Oman would be a corridor, not a reopening. Only rain opens the second. For a family office the exposure is rarely a ship; it is the heating bill, the freight inside every import, and the counterparties a cargo meets on the way.
What would prove this wrong
Strait of Hormuz transits above 100 in any week IMF PortWatch reports up to its week ending 4 December 2026. That would mean shipping took a deal at its word within weeks, and our view of a slow return is wrong.
Linked, never quoted. The line under each is ours.
- Whether the reported Salalah meeting on 9 November produces a managed passage, and what war-risk underwriters say about it.
- The Rhine at Kaub after its forecast low of 9 November, and whether Bern releases more from its fuel reserves.
- IMF PortWatch's next weekly release, for Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the port calls at Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg.
Rhine low water lasts into December
medium · high · risingThis dry spell has already outlasted 2022's. The scenario is delayed heating-oil deliveries and higher barge freight across the Swiss winter.
Hormuz talks fail and US strikes widen
medium · high · risingStrikes and talks ran side by side this week. The scenario is a longer closure and tanker freight staying at records.
The Red Sea return stalls
low · medium · stableSuez had its best October since 2023, but Bab el-Mandeb transits fell 13% on the week. The scenario is carriers turning back to the Cape and container rates rising again.
Probability, impact and trend are our own ratings, never market odds.
9 Nov
Reported meeting of Gulf and Iranian foreign ministers in Salalah
Whether a temporary, managed passage through Hormuz is agreed.
9 Nov
Forecast low point of the Rhine at Kaub
Whether the river turns, or barge traffic to Basel stays limited.
12 Nov
Weekly Oil Bulletin, prices of 9 November
Whether heating oil and heavy fuel oil react to the week's strikes and talks.
4 Dec
The test above: Hormuz transits through PortWatch's week ending 4 December
Above 100 in any week would mean shipping is returning faster than we expect.
9 Jan
US port fees on China-linked ships due to take effect after their two-month suspension
Whether they are suspended again or begin to apply.
- Transits and port calls: IMF PortWatch, aggregated by us into 7-day totals ending on PortWatch's latest published date. Source: International Monetary Fund, PortWatch.
- Fuel: European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin, before tax (CC BY 4.0); heavy fuel oil is an inland price used as a proxy for bunker costs.
- Container freight: Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), from Freightos' weekly update of 3 November 2026, credited with a link.
- Sanctions: new vessel listings on the published OFAC, UK and SECO lists, counted by us. Tanker freight is described from published reporting, without a figure.
- Storms: GDACS alerts. News is linked, never quoted.
Editorial market intelligence, not investment advice.
