Crude and the refined product moved in opposite directions for a second session on 2026-09-24: Brent rose 3.41% to $106.60 while New York diesel fell 0.97%.
WTI November $94.61 (+2.66%); natural gas $3.297 (+9.06%); copper $6.7185 (+0.61%); gold $4,298.00 (-0.47%); silver $64.00 (-1.48%). Iran warned the war could spread to the Indian Ocean. Hormuz departures 295 against a thirty-day mean of 300.3.
Oil rose again after Iran threatened to widen the war, but diesel fell as the US backed away from banning its export. Natural gas jumped, helped by strong exports. Gold and silver slipped.
So-what: Our 23 September diesel test fired: the margin over Brent closed near $92, below the $95 line, without a ban — the administration now describes restrictions. The export premium has left the product. Crude's rally is a geopolitical premium on flows that remain at baseline, and metals fell with real yields.
What to watch. The diesel margin from $92; Gulf LNG departures; the positioning report published today.