Oil fell almost 6% after the president said more strikes on Iran were unlikely.
A Saudi pipeline was attacked but kept running.
Gold and copper rose.
The bigger picture. The speculative money had already gone: the engine's positioning data shows money managers' net long in crude at 21,728 contracts in the 3 November report, against 79,592 at the end of September. Monday's fall was a repricing of the war, not a forced exit.
We are confident the war has, for now, stopped setting the oil price. We are less sure how long the outflow from Binance lasts, but the other big exchanges look steady. On Sunday we expected the weekend's attacks to matter more for oil than they did; that call was wrong.
Prices quoted here are Monday's closing levels unless we say they come from early Tuesday trading.
What could change this. Against this: a strike that stops the bypass would reverse Monday's move in a session.
So-what: Oil is now pricing the end of the war, not individual attacks.
What to watch. Saudi loadings at Yanbu; OPEC's report on Wednesday; gas prices.