A Saudi pipeline that bypasses the Gulf was attacked but kept working.
Oil prices fell sharply.
Saudi Red Sea exports are running near capacity.
Tanker rates have fallen, and Gulf fuel retailers report strong profits.
The bigger picture. The bypass worked, which is why the barrel fell. The asset that now carries the risk is the bypass itself.
We are confident the war has, for now, stopped setting the oil price. We are less sure how long the outflow from Binance lasts, but the other big exchanges look steady. On Sunday we expected the weekend's attacks to matter more for oil than they did; that call was wrong.
Prices quoted here are Monday's closing levels unless we say they come from early Tuesday trading.
What could change this. Against this: Yanbu running at capacity leaves no slack if the Gulf route closes further.
So-what: The bypass held, so the oil price fell.
What to watch. Yanbu loadings; OPEC on Wednesday; tanker rates.