The energy complex split three ways on 2026-09-24: crude up 3.41%, diesel down 0.97%, natural gas up 9.06%.
Brent November $106.60; WTI November $94.61; diesel $4.7303/gal; natural gas $3.297. LNG terminal vessel counts on 2026-09-24: Freeport 12 against 7.9, Sabine Pass 28 against 25.4, Corpus Christi 23 against 20.2, Cameron 9 against 9.1.
Oil rose, diesel fell and natural gas jumped. More ships than usual were loading gas at three of four US export terminals. Europe and Mexico still worry about any US limit on diesel exports this winter, even without a full ban.
So-what: The diesel test we set on 23 September fired: the margin over Brent fell to about $92 with no ban. The product view is marked wrong. Gas is where the physical tightening now is — export demand running above baseline into the heating season.
What to watch. Gulf LNG departures; the diesel margin; any formal export guidance.