What are the odds of a US-Iran deal, and what would it change?

This is the direct falsifier for the duration read, which is why it is published rather than buried. If the diplomatic machinery is merely dormant rather than dismantled, the closure can be re-dated and the whole framing weakens.

The layer prices it low across horizons: a qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting before 31 August at 0.145; a US reissue of Iranian oil sanction relief by the same date at 0.175, down from 0.510 on 8 August; a US-Iran agreement by the 15 August deadline at 0.035, and a US-announced end of the blockade at 0.028.

Both of the 31 August bands are low and both are falling. Neither is zero. A scheduled meeting alone — before any agreement — would say the machinery is dormant rather than dismantled, and that is the observation that would move this brief off its read.