Why does Antevo say the Strait of Hormuz closure is a duration story, not a deadline story?

A deadline story asks when something ends. A duration story asks what it costs while it lasts. Through July the Hormuz question was traded as the first: every diplomatic headline moved the barrel because the market was pricing a date. That has changed. The engine's probability layer now marks the strait as not returning to normal use this year at 0.545, and — the part that matters — it has held that mark for four consecutive sessions rather than round-tripping on the next despatch.

The brief set this test in public on 11 August. The odds of reopening and the odds of staying shut had just crossed, the same lines had crossed once at the start of the month and reversed within a session, and we wrote that this crossing had to survive the same test. It survived.

The consequence is where the cost goes. Once a disruption is expected to persist, it stops living in flat price and starts living in freight rates, war-risk insurance, routing distance and refining margins — where it becomes somebody's revenue rather than everybody's news story.