What is the risk of Houthi action against Saudi Arabia?

The distinction this risk turns on is between a lane and a producer. Everything else in the Gulf story is about the route a barrel takes. An attack on Saudi Arabia would be about whether the barrel exists.

The band is read carefully here. At 0.61 it is a live and material mark, but it is a single observation with no prior history in the series, so it states a level and cannot state a direction. What removes the theoretical quality is a separate, now-settled band: a successful attack on shipping resolved at 0.982 on 11 August. The capability is demonstrated rather than assumed.

The reason it sits at the top of the radar is asymmetry against this brief's own framing. We argue a chokepoint is being repriced; an attack on a producer would replace that argument with a larger one.