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How should I read impact, probability and trend on an Antevo risk?

Impact is what it would do, probability is how likely it is, and trend is the direction of travel — graded in words on purpose, so nobody converts a judgement into false precision.

Publishedsince 14 Aug

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1revision, all readable

1edition behind it

The desk’s reading

Impact and probability are stated in graded words — high, medium, low. They are judgements about mechanism and evidence, and turning them into percentages would dress a judgement as a measurement. Where a genuine measured probability exists, it is quoted as a band with its question and horizon attached.

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Trend is the most useful field and the most often skipped. A stable high-impact risk is not a small one; it means the risk is not currently accelerating. A rising medium risk may deserve more attention this week than a stable high one.

Every risk also carries why_it_matters in prose. If the mechanism cannot be written in a paragraph, it is not yet a risk — it is a worry.

Signed by the deskPublished 14 August 2026 · revision 1 · Intelligence, not advice

Next questions

What is the Risk Radar?

Not answered here: what this means for your holdings.That question is answered inside Antevo Wealth, against an actual book.

The record behind this answer — 1 edition, 1 revisionAll editions

14 Aug 2026Thursday settled firm and settled narrow

For your assistantThe same answer as structured fields — MCP, JSON-LD

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or read antevo.ch/ask/positions.json · antevo.ch/mcp