Where do the probability numbers in the brief come from, and how should they be read?
They are marks from a tracked probability layer on specific, dated questions — read as levels and, only where there is history, as trends.
Based on Antevo intelligence published 14 August 2026 · Intelligence, not advice.
Each band answers one precisely worded question with a date attached: whether the strait returns to normal use this calendar year, whether a qualifying meeting occurs before 31 August, whether an inventory drawdown prints. The wording and the horizon are part of the number.
Two reading rules matter. A mark with prior history can be read as a trend — the strait band holding 0.545 across four consecutive sessions is the example. A single mark with no history in the series states a level only, which is why the 0.61 band on Houthi action against Saudi Arabia is described as a level rather than a rising risk.
Bands also settle. When one resolves it stops being a forecast and becomes evidence: a band on a successful attack on shipping resolved at 0.982 on 11 August, which is how the brief can say a capability is demonstrated rather than theoretical.