Glossary / Wealth and risk
Historical vs hypothetical scenario
A historical scenario measures what today's holdings would return if a past period of market history repeated. A hypothetical scenario applies extreme market moves and co-movements that have not previously occurred, to explore risks that history may not capture.
Written by Antevo · 15 September 2026
See it in practice01 / In practice
Illustrative only; every number is invented and none is taken from a real episode. A fictional CHF 1,000,000 portfolio holds CHF 600,000 in equities and CHF 400,000 in bonds. A historical-style replay assumes equities fell 20% while bonds rose 3%: −120,000 + 12,000 = −CHF 108,000, or −10.8%. A hypothetical scenario assumes equities fall 20% and bonds fall 8% at the same time: −120,000 − 32,000 = −CHF 152,000, or −15.2%. The two results differ because of the assumption about how bonds move alongside equities. Each approach has limits: history rarely repeats exactly, and an invented scenario can misjudge how assets move together.
02 / In Antevo
Where you will
meet it.
The risk view in Antevo Wealth, with historical and hypothetical scenarios, is included from the Personal arrangement, and results are read in the household's own currency.
Go there03 / Related terms
Read next.
04 / Sources
Where this comes from.
Primary sources for the definition above. Intelligence, not advice: your adviser or counsel confirms anything a decision rests on.